SP500 220 Coming ? -- '29 - '09 Comparison

I thought I'd take a look at the decline in 1929 and compare that to todays decline. ; In 1929 the market dropped roughly 86% from top to bottom. That would put the SP @ the 220 level when all is said and done.

There were two V bounces in '29-32. The first V bounce occurred roughly 3 months into the major event. The current V bounce ('07-09), began roughly 5 months into the decline.

I'm speculating that the fiscal stimulus has slowed the rate of decline. The current bounce and "June '09 High" (if it holds), took 3 months to build, versus 5 months in the '29-'32 event. The stimulus, most likely accelerated the '09 bounce.

Time will tell if we have further to go on the downside, but when you look at the scope of the '29-'32 decline, you realize, how long an event that it really was -86% from top to bottom. Also a major drop from the top of the bounce. If we had declines of similar percentages, then 220 is not out of the question......